The Limits to Growth

I'm reading the Maze of Ingenuity by Arnold Pacey for my obligatory history course on the impact of technology on society. For once, the reading is about something besides how many widgets Britain manufactured in 16-oh-don't-care or how many people died in such and such a kerfuffle over such and such a piece of land.

The reading is about the future of our development as a species. It is an intrinsic part of us to want to learn new things about our universe. Even as far back as 1851, when there was concern over the direction and ultimate sustainability of human progress, critics were romanticized by the possibilities of scientific advancement. While Babbage wrote about the 'inevitable' exhaustion of Britain's coal reserves and Jevons criticized unsustainable exponential growth, they were each optimistic about the steady march of science.

I can certainly understand their perspectives, living in a world addicted to the oil barrel which must eventually run dry. Luckily for us, although Babbage was right, his predictions did not come to pass. Coal was replaced by other sources of energy and the exponential growth that supported his argument stagnated and declined (in coal). The problem has been delayed, not solved: like a cardiac patient switching to a new brand of bacon bits.

I'm sure that every generation finds something to worry about, which to them, could end the world and destroy humanity. Eventually, one of us will be right about that. In order to avoid that lucky generation from being us, or our children or our grandchildren, we need to redefine 'progress' and find smarter ways to fuel its growth.

In the book, the author suggests that progress be related to human welfare, which seems obvious, but certainly isn't the case in most places (including this one). I'm not suggesting that it's an easy thing to change the culture of entire nations, but it's happened before. We need better technological goals that are focused on better lives rather than better toys.

I would argue that there is hope and that we can see that happening in our societies, albeit slowly. Our economies are becoming more focused on services, which rely on the most renewable of all resources -- human creativity and labor.

The other half of the equation is the energy that we use to fuel everything that our lives require. That's where I hope to come in some day. I feel a duty to work towards making renewable energies cost competitive. Once they are, then their time will have come and no rational person will be able to say no. We can begin to see that happening for wind power. Solar is still a way off, but it's getting better rapidly.

Anyone who has ever tried to build something will tell you that solutions usually cause new problems. I'm excited to see if we can be clever enough to invent solutions to the problems presented by our previous solutions.